Probabilistic Analysis Tool

The Probabilistic Analysis Tool helps users understand how uncertainties in the design parameters affect the outputs of the ModelCenter model. The tool is typically used to compute the probability that the value of an output variable exceeds a specified limit. In addition to random sampling methods such as the Monte Carlo method, the tool provides a number of additional analytical methods that require much smaller sample sizes. Probabilistic analyses can be set up and executed through an unified graphical user interface (GUI). Using the GUI, users can easily switch between available algorithms.

The Probabilistic Analsis Tool uses the Monte Carlo method. Monte Carlo is the traditional random sampling method that generally requires a very high number of function evaluations. Because it requires a very large number of function evaluations, Monte Carlo is usually not suitable for estimating the probability of rare events such as failures.